WHEN PROTECTIVE RESOURCES ENABLE EXIT: ADAPTIVE RESILIENCE CAPACITY AND SOCIAL CAPITAL AS PREDICTORS OF CLIMATE-INDUCED DISPLACEMENT IN NOSHKI DISTRICT, BALOCHISTAN

Abstract

Adaptation and community-resilience programming rests on a shared premise: that household capacities and social ties anchor people in place, so that stronger adaptive capacity and denser social capital should reduce climate-induced displacement. This study tests that premise in Noshki District, Balochistan, one of Pakistan’s most drought-exposed districts, using a cross-sectional household survey (N = 364) conducted across the district’s seven Union Councils. Two hypotheses were examined: that adaptive resilience capacity (H1) and household social capital (H2) each exert a significant negative effect on displacement, with livelihood vulnerability included as a control. Both were rejected in direction. Adaptive resilience capacity was the strongest predictor (r = .317, 95% CI [.221, .407], p < .001; B = 0.307, SE = 0.066, β = .249, t = 4.68, p < .001), uniquely accounting for 5.3% of the variance in displacement in a model explaining 13.3% overall, F(3, 360) = 18.37, p < .001. Social capital was also positively associated with displacement (r = .187, 95% CI [.086, .284], p < .001; B = 0.168, SE = 0.068, β = .123, t = 2.46, p = .014; sr² = .015). Descriptive evidence points to a mechanism common to both results. The strongest signal in the displacement domain was a wish to live elsewhere coupled with an inability to afford it (M = 3.55, SD = 1.23), while households reported strong attachment to place alongside the weakest confidence in collective support during individual misfortune (M = 2.64, SD = 1.35) and frequent contact with earlier migrants (M = 3.56, SD = 1.25). The findings suggest that in chronically degraded arid environments, resources conventionally treated as protective operate as enabling conditions for mobility, with consequences for how adaptation success is defined and measured.