MAIZE CROP PRODUCTION DYNAMICS IN PAKISTAN: TRENDS, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, TRADE LINKAGES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Abstract

Maize is an important cereal crop in Pakistan, serving as human food, poultry feed, livestock fodder and an industrial commodity for wet milling. This study evaluates maize production trends (cultivation area, volume, yield, pricing, and market availability), demand-supply dynamics, and farm-level cost-profitability. It utilized secondary data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), FAO and other sources, with demand-supply forecasts using the ARIMA model and cost analysis via AIMS data. Pakistan accounts for 0.78% of global maize area and 0.80% of production. Pakistan’s maize yield averaged to about 6.02 tons/ha in last five years, lags far behind from Turkey (12.92 tons/ha) and the US (11.13 tons/ha) due to poor practices, inadequate extension services and climate challenges. In the last one decade (from 2014-15 to 2024-25), Pakistan maize area has grown by 39%, at an annual growth rate of 3.3%, there has been about two-fold increase in the production (1.8 times), with annual growth rate of 6.2%, and productivity gone up by 31.8%, with a growth rate of 2.8% per annum. Maize production forecasted through ARIMA model for the year 2026-27 is 9484.2 thousand tonnes, with 95% confidence level lower and upper limits of 8465.5 and 10502.8 thousand tonnes, respectively. Maize demand for the year 2026-27 is estimated at 8926.9 thousand tonnes. An inverse relationship between net worth of exports of maize and net worth of imports of soybeans has been observed in last five years. It means that in years when value of maize exports remains low, the country must import more soybeans. Thus, the country has to import either maize or soybeans to cater increasing maize demand, specifically in the years with low production. In 2023-24, benefit-cost ratio of maize production cost per acre in Punjab was1.50:1.00, outperforming competing crops like wheat and cotton in profitability. Key constraints in maize production include reliance on imported seeds (92% in 2023-24), climate-related stress, imbalanced fertilizer use, and lack of drying/storage facilities.