CLIMATE-INDUCED SOIL DEGRADATION AND PLANT FUNCTIONAL DIVERSITY IN PAKISTAN’S AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly intensifying soil degradation and ecological instability across agricultural systems, creating challenges for climate-resilient food production. This study examines the relationships among climate-induced environmental stress, soil degradation, plant functional diversity, and climate-resilient agricultural performance across six agro-ecological settings in Pakistan. Drawing on Biological Insurance Theory, the study proposes that climate-induced environmental stress increases soil degradation, while soil degradation reduces plant functional diversity and agricultural resilience. Plant functional diversity is further conceptualized as a mediating mechanism between soil degradation and climate-resilient agricultural performance. A quantitative design was developed using a simulated sample of 600 observations distributed across six agro-ecological strata. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, correlation, multiple regression, and mediation analysis. The results indicate a positive association between climate-induced environmental stress and soil degradation, a negative association between soil degradation and plant functional diversity, and positive and negative relationships of plant functional diversity and soil degradation, respectively, with climate-resilient agricultural performance. Mediation analysis further indicates that plant functional diversity partially transmits the adverse effect of soil degradation on agricultural resilience. The findings theoretically extend Biological Insurance Theory to climate-resilient agricultural systems and highlight the importance of integrating soil conservation and functional diversity into climate adaptation strategies. Because the dataset is simulated, the statistical results are require validation through field-based longitudinal research in Pakistan.